TLDR

  • Samsara (IOT) climbed 15% on Friday following Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.18 that surpassed the $0.13 consensus by $0.05
  • Quarterly revenue reached $444.3M, representing a 28% year-over-year increase and exceeding estimates of $422.3M
  • Annual recurring revenue reached $1.9B, climbing approximately 30% year-over-year
  • FY2027 EPS guidance of $0.65–$0.69 significantly exceeded analyst expectations of approximately $0.33
  • Several analysts maintained Buy/Outperform ratings, establishing price targets between $39 and $44

Samsara (IOT) delivered robust fiscal Q4 results on Thursday, prompting an immediate positive response from Wall Street. Shares climbed 15% on Friday to reach $34.10, recovering a portion of the 17% decline the stock had experienced year-to-date before the earnings announcement.

The financial performance proved compelling. Quarterly revenue totaled $444.3 million, marking a 28.3% increase from the prior-year period and surpassing the $422.3 million analyst estimate. Adjusted EPS landed at $0.18, exceeding the $0.13 consensus forecast by five cents.


IOT Stock Card
Samsara Inc., IOT

The company concluded the fiscal year with $1.9 billion in annual recurring revenue, reflecting 30% year-over-year growth — a critical indicator for a company continuing to emphasize its expansion trajectory.

Forward Guidance Captures Attention

The outlook proved equally significant as the earnings beat itself. Samsara established its FY2027 EPS range at $0.65–$0.69. This target stands considerably above the street consensus hovering around $0.33 — representing more than double analyst projections. Q1 2027 EPS guidance landed at $0.12–$0.13, similarly exceeding expectations.

Management communicated a 21%–22% revenue growth objective for FY2027 while continuing to emphasize its AI expansion initiatives.

Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne maintained an Outperform rating and designated Samsara a “top idea,” substituting Oracle on that roster. He highlighted vertical integration as protection against AI disruption — a perspective that resonated given the substantial pressure other software stocks have faced on this issue.

BTIG analyst Nick Altmann maintained his Buy rating while adjusting his price target from $55 to $45 to account for lower industry-wide valuations. He emphasized Samsara’s proprietary dataset as a competitive advantage for developing AI capabilities.

Analyst Price Targets

BMO Capital Markets increased its target from $40 to $44 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Piper Sandler elevated its target to $39 from $37 and retained an Overweight rating, suggesting approximately 22.8% upside from the previous close. KeyCorp adjusted its target upward to $41 from $40 with an Overweight rating.

Royal Bank of Canada maintains a $35 target on the stock.

The consensus rating among 17 analysts stands at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $45.69. One analyst holds a Strong Buy rating, eleven hold Buy ratings, four hold Hold ratings, and one holds a Sell rating.

Samsara’s 52-week trading range extends from $23.38 to $48.40. The stock maintains a market capitalization of approximately $18.3 billion.

One development worth noting: insiders have been selling shares. Founders John Bicket and Sanjit Biswas each divested 263,900 shares on January 6 at $34.40 per share — approximately $9 million each. During the past 90 days, insiders sold roughly 2.9 million shares with a total value of $92 million. Corporate insiders continue to hold approximately 46.5% of the company.

Institutional ownership represents 96%, with multiple funds increasing positions in recent quarters.

Samsara’s 50-day moving average rests at $30.39, and the stock’s Friday close of $34.10 positions it above that technical level.