TLDR

  • The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre says Britain should prepare for an AI-powered attack on critical infrastructure within two years.
  • AI-powered malware is “highly likely” to be used in a ransomware attack on UK infrastructure by 2028.
  • The agency says China is likely best placed to use AI against UK strategic targets.
  • Russia is making sustained attempts to break into UK military networks, and Iran runs cyber operations worldwide.
  • Chief executive Richard Horne says too many organisations have done “tech on the cheap” for decades.

Britain should prepare for an AI-powered cyberattack on its critical national infrastructure within two years, the National Cyber Security Centre said on Tuesday. The centre is part of the GCHQ spy agency.

The warning appears in the centre’s annual review. It says AI-powered malware will “highly likely” be used in a ransomware attack on UK critical infrastructure by 2028.

What the report says

The UK’s definition of critical national infrastructure covers energy, transport, defence, food, health and finance. The Guardian reported that power stations, airports and hospitals could be targets.

The centre said AI will help attackers scout targets, find weaknesses in IT networks and write malicious code. It also said hostile actors will use AI to increase the scale and efficiency of their operations.

Ransomware attackers lock a victim’s files with malicious software. They then demand a payment, usually in cryptocurrency, to unlock systems and return stolen data.

UK ransomware victims have included Royal Mail, outsourcing firm Capita and several councils. Gangs behind such attacks typically operate from former Soviet Union states.

Richard Horne, chief executive of the centre, is due to give a speech on Tuesday. He will say Britain faces a real prospect of an unprecedented rise in cyber incidents in the coming months.

Horne will say the cause is not new attack methods created by AI. He will say AI can now find long-tolerated weaknesses and exploit them at a scale once thought unimaginable.

He will also say too many organisations and supply chains have got away with “doing tech on the cheap” for decades. Horne said this has left them open to attack.

Russia, China and Iran

The centre said China is likely the best equipped country to use AI against UK critical infrastructure. Horne will call its activity the most sophisticated and sustained cyber challenge the UK faces.

Horne will say Russia is making sustained attempts to break into UK military networks. He will say these attacks are persistent and daily, but are designed to stay below the level of armed conflict.

He will add that Iran carries out malicious cyber operations around the world. These include operations against the UK and people it sees as a threat.

Moscow, Beijing and Tehran have all denied similar accusations in the past. The report also says Russia and China will start using AI routinely in cyberattacks.

An example of AI finding hidden flaws came last month. The technology helped discover a critical weakness in PHP, a computer language used by almost 70% of websites.

Alan Woodward, a cybersecurity professor at Surrey University, said states and companies need access to cutting-edge AI. He said AI can help find and fix flaws, but attackers could get there first.

Leading AI firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic have given some companies early access to their strongest models. The aim is to help them find serious IT problems.

Last month, the UK government launched its Be Ready campaign. It urged households to keep up to nine litres of bottled water and three days of food in case of an emergency.

The report follows hacking attacks on supermarkets across Europe. In some cases, hackers raised fridge temperatures to more than 50C.

Horne said organisations must act now or explain why they did not make the right choices. He will say this applies if food is not on shelves and lights are not on.