Quick Summary

  • Revenue for Q4 2025 reached $1.87 million, declining 17.6% compared to the prior year and falling below Wall Street’s $2.33 million projection
  • Analyst Vijay Rakesh at Mizuho reduced his price objective from $50 to $43 while keeping his Buy recommendation, highlighting 142% potential gains
  • The company reached 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity operating at 28 nanoseconds, delivering speeds potentially 3–5x ahead of rival systems
  • Cash reserves stand at approximately $590 million, with an additional $8.4 million contract secured from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing
  • Development roadmap aims for 150+ physical qubits by December 2026, scaling to 1,000+ qubits by late 2027

Rigetti Computing delivered mixed results for its fourth quarter, with revenue figures disappointing investors while technical achievements demonstrated significant forward momentum. Here’s a breakdown of the company’s current position.


RGTI Stock Card
Rigetti Computing, Inc., RGTI

The company recorded Q4 2025 revenue of $1.87 million, representing a 17.6% decline year-over-year and falling beneath analyst expectations of $2.33 million. Sequential performance also showed weakness, dropping from the previous quarter’s $2.3 million.

Gross margin compression occurred during the period, declining to 35% compared with 44% recorded in Q4 2024. Management explained this margin pressure stemmed from contract composition rather than fundamental business challenges.

Operating losses expanded to $22.6 million during the quarter, increasing from $18.5 million in the year-ago period. Combined operating expenses climbed to $23.2 million from $19.5 million, with research and development investments accounting for the majority of the increase.

Earnings per share showed a loss of $0.03, matching analyst consensus forecasts.

Vijay Rakesh at Mizuho adjusted his valuation model, lowering his price objective from $50 to $43 — representing a 14% reduction. His Buy recommendation remained unchanged.

The revised $43 target still suggests approximately 142% potential appreciation from present trading levels. Rakesh bases his valuation on roughly 9x his revenue projections 30 months forward, incorporating an assumption that Rigetti will secure 10% market share in quantum computing.

First Quarter Projections and Contract Pipeline

Rakesh projects Q1 2026 revenue will reach $3 million — marking a 62% sequential increase and 106% year-over-year growth. This anticipated expansion links primarily to the company’s $5.7 million Novera quantum processor agreement.

Delivery of the first Cepheus-1 108-qubit system to India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing is scheduled for the second half of 2026, representing an $8.4 million transaction.

Rigetti’s balance sheet shows approximately $590 million in cash reserves, providing substantial financial flexibility to advance its technology roadmap without near-term capital constraints.

Hardware Advancements

Technical achievements during the quarter included reaching 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity through a novel adiabatic CZ methodology operating at 28 nanoseconds. Management estimates this performance represents 3 to 5 times faster execution compared with alternative approaches in the market.

Cloud deployment now includes an 84-qubit monolithic chip architecture alongside a 36-qubit chiplet-based configuration.

The company maintains Fab One, positioned as the quantum computing sector’s first purpose-built, fully integrated device fabrication facility.

Strategic collaborations include working with Riverlane on error correction capabilities and partnering with Nvidia to connect quantum processors with GPUs and CPUs through NVLink technology, leveraging CUDA-Q software for hybrid computing architectures.

Development milestones target exceeding 150 physical qubits by December 2026, expanding beyond 1,000 qubits by year-end 2027. The company projects quantum advantage achievement approximately three years into the future.

According to TipRanks, RGTI carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating derived from five Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings. The average analyst price target stands at $37.60, suggesting approximately 111.7% upside potential from current price levels.

RGTI stock has appreciated more than 117% over the trailing twelve-month period.