Quick Summary
- Rigetti Computing releases Q4 FY2025 financial results after trading hours on March 4, 2026.
- Wall Street consensus projects a $0.03 per share loss with revenue reaching $2.33 million.
- Year-to-date, RGTI stock has declined over 21%, though it climbed 9.4% during the previous week.
- IonQ’s impressive Q4 performance boosted optimism throughout the quantum computing industry, benefiting RGTI.
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) stand out as the primary metric for gauging future revenue potential.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 financial performance following market hours on Wednesday, March 4. The timing presents an interesting backdrop — shares have dropped over 21% since January, though recent trading sessions brought some relief.
Shares advanced 9.4% during the week concluded March 1, while the S&P 500 decreased 0.4% and the Nasdaq declined 1%. This recovery stands out, particularly because Rigetti itself hadn’t released any specific catalyst.
IonQ published its Q4 numbers on February 25, delivering a non-GAAP loss of $0.20 per share alongside revenue of $61.89 million. Wall Street had anticipated a loss of $0.23 per share with revenue of only $40.38 million. The substantial earnings beat generated momentum across the entire sector.
IonQ additionally projected full-year 2026 revenue between $225 million and $245 million, significantly exceeding the Street’s $192.6 million estimate. Such positive guidance typically elevates sentiment industry-wide, with Rigetti among the beneficiaries.
Rigetti now steps into the spotlight.
Analysts forecast a $0.03 per share loss for Q4, representing improvement from the $0.08 per share loss during the year-ago period. Revenue projections stand at $2.33 million, reflecting approximately 2.6% year-over-year growth. While these figures appear modest, the trajectory holds significance.
RPOs: The Critical Metric for Investors
For a pre-revenue growth company like Rigetti, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) hold greater significance than quarterly revenue alone. RPOs quantify the dollar value of signed contracts awaiting completion — functioning as a forward indicator of secured business commitments.
Rigetti’s RPOs experienced a decline during early 2025 before bouncing back. Market participants will scrutinize whether this rebound maintains momentum or loses steam.
RPOs encompass agreements for quantum processing units, cloud platform access, and associated services. For an organization investing heavily in R&D, this figure reveals whether clients are establishing genuine, extended commitments.
Hardware Timeline Under Scrutiny
Hardware development has captured investor attention recently. Rigetti postponed its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system launch to late Q1 FY2026.
The organization also pledged to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system achieving 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by year-end 2025. Whether this milestone was reached — or its current status — will probably surface during the earnings discussion.
Analyst perspectives entering the report lean cautiously optimistic. TipRanks shows RGTI holding a Moderate Buy consensus rating, supported by five Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings. The average price target reaches $38.75, suggesting potential upside exceeding 120% from current levels around $17.52.
The 52-week trading range extends from $6.86 to $58.15, positioning today’s price approximately midway through that spectrum. Significant value has eroded since peak levels.
Rigetti’s Q4 earnings discussion is slated for after trading concludes on March 4, 2026.
