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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Polymarket$55.7M volEnds 1 Jan 2027

0 (0 bps) leads at 98% on Polymarket, ahead of 2 (50 bps) at <1%.

Odds history

0 (0 bps)98%2 (50 bps)1%1 (25 bps)1%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

0 (0 bps)

$9.5M vol

98%

+0.1 pts 24h

2 (50 bps)

$3.6M vol

<1%

+0.4 pts 24h

1 (25 bps)

$3.7M vol

<1%

-0.5 pts 24h

3 (75 bps)

$3.0M vol

<1%

4 (100 bps)

$2.8M vol

<1%

5 (125 bps)

$3.1M vol

<1%

6 (150 bps)

$4.3M vol

<1%

7 (175 bps)

$3.5M vol

<1%

8 (200 bps)

$3.3M vol

<1%

9 (225 bps)

$4.3M vol

<1%

10 (250 bps)

$5.0M vol

<1%

11 (275 bps)

$5.3M vol

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$4.2M vol

<1%

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Economy › Fed Rates
Scheduled deadline
1 Jan 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”?

0 (0 bps) leads at 98% on Polymarket, ahead of 2 (50 bps) at <1%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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Prediction markets carry substantial risk and may be restricted where you live. Odds are market prices from Polymarket, not predictions or advice from Computing.net.