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Bank of England decision in December?

Polymarket$84.1K volEnds 17 Dec 2026

No change leads at 58% on Polymarket, ahead of 25 bps increase at 42%.

Odds history

No change58%25 bps increase42%25 bps decrease0%
0%25%50%75%100%15 Oct21 Oct28 Oct3 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

No change

$39.3K vol

58%

25 bps increase

$23.7K vol

42%

+3.5 pts 24h

25 bps decrease

$8.7K vol

<1%

50+ bps increase

$8.8K vol

<1%

+0.1 pts 24h

50+ bps decrease

$3.6K vol

<1%

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 01:00 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Economy › BOE
Scheduled deadline
17 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 17, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Bank of England decision in December?”?

No change leads at 58% on Polymarket, ahead of 25 bps increase at 42%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 17 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 17, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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