
Fed Decision in January?
Polymarket$1.3M volEnds 28 Jan 2027
No change leads at 79% on Polymarket, ahead of 25 bps increase at 18%.
Odds history
Current odds
Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.
Market details
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Category
- Economy › Fed
- Scheduled deadline
- 28 Jan 2027
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
FAQ
›What are the current odds for “Fed Decision in January?”?
No change leads at 79% on Polymarket, ahead of 25 bps increase at 18%.
›When does this market close?
Trading is scheduled to end on 28 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.
›How does this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.…
›Where can I trade this market?
This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.
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