Key Takeaways
- Freedom Capital Markets shifted Nebius (NBIS) rating from Buy to Hold following approximately 70% appreciation over two months.
- Paul Meeks, the covering analyst, increased the price target from $108 to $154 while expressing caution on current valuation levels.
- Shares have climbed 574% year-over-year and are hovering close to the 52-week peak of $149.82.
- Revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for 2026 and 2027 were increased, surpassing consensus forecasts.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) now present more attractive risk-reward profiles according to the firm.
Nebius Group (NBIS) has experienced a remarkable ascent. Following a steep rally of approximately 70% beginning in early February, Freedom Capital Markets analyst Paul Meeks has decided to adjust his stance on the stock.
Meeks announced the rating change from Buy to Hold this Thursday, while simultaneously boosting his price target from $108 to $154. This dual action may appear inconsistent at first glance, yet the reasoning is clear: the share price appreciated more rapidly than projections indicated.
NBIS began February trading around $85.19. By the close on April 10, shares reached $144.97. This represents approximately $60 in gains over a span of just two months. The stock currently trades in proximity to its 52-week high of $149.82.
Broaden the timeframe and the performance becomes even more remarkable. Throughout the trailing twelve months, NBIS has delivered returns of 574%.
Meeks maintains confidence in the underlying business fundamentals. The firm has actually increased its revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for both 2026 and 2027. These updated estimates exceed consensus figures from Wall Street analysts.
The growth trajectory appears impressive. Freedom Capital anticipates revenue expansion exceeding 200% from 2026 to 2027, with adjusted EBITDA climbing approximately 336% over the same period.
Factors Behind Elevated Growth Projections
A major driver for the anticipated 2027 acceleration stems from a capacity expansion revealed on March 31. Nebius announced plans to deploy 310 MW of AI infrastructure in Lappeenranta, Finland. This additional capacity is scheduled to become operational next year.
Upon full deployment, the facility is projected to rank among Europe’s largest AI factories. This development represents a significant component of the growth narrative extending into 2027.
The revised $154 price target derives from 6 times Freedom Capital’s 2027 EV/adjusted EBITDA forecast, contrasted with 25 times the 2026 estimate — a reflection of the dramatic expansion the firm anticipates between these years.
Meanwhile, BofA Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $150 price target. BWS Financial maintains a $200 target, citing a $12 billion contract Nebius landed with Meta Platforms — with potential for an additional $15 billion in future agreements.
Wall Street Perspective
According to TipRanks, NBIS carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, featuring nine Buy recommendations and one Hold. The average analyst price target stands at $165.20, suggesting approximately 14% potential upside from present levels.
In March, Nebius completed a $4 billion convertible senior notes offering — expanded from the initially planned $3.75 billion. The transaction consisted of $2.25 billion in notes maturing in 2031 and $1.75 billion due in 2033, with settlement occurring on March 20.
Meeks indicated that CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) currently offer more favorable near-term risk-reward dynamics compared to NBIS at today’s valuation.
This rating adjustment reflects valuation considerations rather than concerns about growth prospects. Freedom Capital continues to view NBIS as a compelling AI infrastructure opportunity — the shares simply may require additional time to justify their current price.
