TLDR
- Evercore ISI raised Ryanair to outperform status, pushing the price target from $75 to $80
- Among all airlines under Evercore’s coverage, Ryanair stands alone with upward EPS adjustments for 2026 and 2027
- Jet fuel crack spreads have climbed to 44% of the total barrel price — far exceeding the 20-25% historical norm
- Major U.S. carriers including United, Delta, and American Airlines faced significant EPS reductions from Evercore
- Using DCF methodology, Ryanair’s fair value reaches €30.34 per share compared to its recent €26.61 close, indicating a 12.3% undervaluation
Evercore ISI raised its rating on Ryanair Holdings this Thursday, elevating the stock from “In Line” to “outperform” status while increasing the price objective from $75 to $80.
The research firm highlighted Ryanair’s robust €1 billion net cash position alongside a 15% decline from January peak levels as primary drivers behind the rating enhancement.
This upgrade arrived while Evercore simultaneously reduced projections for the majority of airlines under its research umbrella. Jet fuel crack spreads have climbed dramatically to 44% of the Gulf Coast barrel’s total price — well beyond the 20-25% long-term historical benchmark.
Analyst Duane Pfennigwerth characterized this development as a 2.8-sigma event, drawing parallels to market conditions observed during 2008 and the initial phase of the Ukraine conflict.
Spot jet fuel prices were tracking approximately 53% higher than the first-quarter average through March 11. The firm calculates a two-week lag for fuel cost realization, projecting Q1 2026 Gulf Coast jet fuel to reach $2.40 per gallon.
Ryanair’s earnings per share projection for 2026 moved up to $4.77 from the previous $4.65, while the 2027 forecast increased to $5.75 from $5.65. The carrier represents the sole company in coverage receiving upward adjustments.
Rivals Take the Hit
The divergence from competing airlines proved dramatic. United Airlines experienced a 2026 EPS projection reduction to $8.60 from $13. Delta’s estimate fell to $5.70 from $7, while American Airlines dropped to -$0.36 from $2.
Ryanair’s net debt-to-EBITDAR ratio for 2026 registers at -0.4x, representing the most favorable position within Evercore’s airline coverage universe. JetBlue shows 13.7x and American reaches 7.2x.
Evercore’s projections remain conservative relative to Wall Street consensus for most airlines. The firm’s $8.60 United figure falls below the Street consensus of $12.91. Delta’s $5.70 estimate trails the $6.99 consensus. For Ryanair, the firm’s full-year 2026 projection of $5.52 aligns closely with the $5.55 consensus view.
Travel demand fundamentals throughout the sector remain robust. Evercore’s Airlines Survey climbed 6.2 points to reach 70.0 in early March, with international travel metrics surging from 62.5 to 75.
Passenger volume for the week concluding March 10 increased 2% year-over-year and ran 5% above 2019 baseline levels.
What the Valuation Says
A discounted cash flow model from Simply Wall St calculates Ryanair’s intrinsic value at €30.34 per share. With the stock’s recent closing price at €26.61, this suggests a 12.3% discount to estimated fair value.
Ryanair’s current price-to-earnings multiple stands at 12.47x. This valuation exceeds the Airlines industry average of 8.66x while remaining below the 17.24x peer group average.
Shares have declined 10.4% year-to-date and dropped 5.6% during the past 30 days. The one-year performance shows a gain of 31.1%, with three-year returns reaching 96.1%.
Ryanair’s full-year 2026 EPS projection of $5.52 from Evercore tracks closely with the $5.55 Street consensus — representing a notable point of convergence within a coverage group otherwise experiencing substantial downward estimate revisions.
