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How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Polymarket$477.4K volEnds 31 Dec 2026

On Polymarket, “Below 4.55%” is currently priced highest at 79%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

Odds history

Below 4.55%76%Below 4.50%48%Below 4.45%40%
0%25%50%75%100%23 Oct27 Oct1 Nov5 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

Below 4.55%

$17.6K vol

79%

+3.5 pts 24h

Yes 83¢No 26¢

Below 4.50%

$38.0K vol

51%

-2.0 pts 24h

Yes 56¢No 55¢

Below 4.45%

$56.6K vol

39%

-8.5 pts 24h

Yes 41¢No 63¢

Below 4.40%

$36.9K vol

29%

-2.0 pts 24h

Yes 35¢No 77¢

Below 4.35%

$53.0K vol

21%

+3.0 pts 24h

Yes 23¢No 82¢

Below 4.25%

$34.5K vol

20%

+2.9 pts 24h

Yes 21¢No 81¢

Below 4.30%

$26.8K vol

18%

+0.3 pts 24h

Yes 19¢No 83¢

Below 4.20%

$44.8K vol

11%

-5.1 pts 24h

Yes 11¢No 90¢

Below 4.10%

$25.4K vol

10%

-0.8 pts 24h

Yes 12¢No 92¢

Below 4.00%

$13.7K vol

5%

-0.4 pts 24h

Yes 6¢No 96¢

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Economy
Scheduled deadline
31 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”?

On Polymarket, “Below 4.55%” is currently priced highest at 79%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 31 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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