Fed Decision in December?
Polymarket$17.6M volTrade on Polymarket →
Fed rate cut by...?
Polymarket$3.9M volEnds 29 Jan 2028
On Polymarket, “July 2027 Meeting” is currently priced highest at 48%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.
Odds history
July 2027 Meeting48%April 2027 Meeting48%June 2027 Meeting32%
Current odds
Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.
Market details
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Category
- Economy › Fed
- Scheduled deadline
- 29 Jan 2028
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
FAQ
›What are the current odds for “Fed rate cut by...?”?
On Polymarket, “July 2027 Meeting” is currently priced highest at 48%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.
›When does this market close?
Trading is scheduled to end on 29 Jan 2028, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.
›How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve…
›Where can I trade this market?
This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.
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Prediction markets carry substantial risk and may be restricted where you live. Odds are market prices from Polymarket, not predictions or advice from Computing.net.