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Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Polymarket$645.9K volEnds 9 Dec 2026

Hike–Pause–Hike leads at 81% on Polymarket, ahead of Hike–Pause–Pause at 17%.

Odds history

Hike–Pause–Hike81%Hike–Pause–Pause17%Other1%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

Hike–Pause–Hike

$205.5K vol

81%

+5.5 pts 24h

Hike–Pause–Pause

$195.1K vol

17%

-3.0 pts 24h

Other

$39.8K vol

1%

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Economy › Fed
Scheduled deadline
9 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)”?

Hike–Pause–Hike leads at 81% on Polymarket, ahead of Hike–Pause–Pause at 17%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 9 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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