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Fed Decision in March?

Polymarket$132.3K volEnds 18 Mar 2027

No change leads at 54% on Polymarket, ahead of 25 bps increase at 35%.

Odds history

No change54%25 bps increase35%25 bps decrease6%
0%25%50%75%100%28 Oct31 Oct3 Nov6 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

No change

$32.0K vol

54%

+0.5 pts 24h

25 bps increase

$69.7K vol

35%

-0.5 pts 24h

25 bps decrease

$10.4K vol

6%

+0.6 pts 24h

50+ bps decrease

$11.4K vol

3%

+0.7 pts 24h

50+ bps increase

$8.8K vol

2%

-0.1 pts 24h

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:40 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Economy › Fed
Scheduled deadline
18 Mar 2027

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Fed Decision in March?”?

No change leads at 54% on Polymarket, ahead of 25 bps increase at 35%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 18 Mar 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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Prediction markets carry substantial risk and may be restricted where you live. Odds are market prices from Polymarket, not predictions or advice from Computing.net.