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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Polymarket$79.2M volEnds 1 Jan 2027

Polymarket traders give this a 9% chance of happening.

Odds history

Yes9%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct25 Oct2 Nov9 Nov

Current odds

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

$79.2M vol

9%

-3.0 pts 24h

Yes 9¢No 92¢

Last updated 9 Nov 2026 23:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Politics › Military Strikes
Scheduled deadline
1 Jan 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?”?

Polymarket traders give this a 9% chance of happening.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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