
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
Polymarket$15.5K volEnds 1 Jan 2027
Polymarket traders give this a 5% chance of happening.
Odds history
Current odds
Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.
Market details
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Category
- Climate & Science › Science
- Scheduled deadline
- 1 Jan 2027
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
FAQ
›What are the current odds for “Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?”?
Polymarket traders give this a 5% chance of happening.
›When does this market close?
Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.
›How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify…
›Where can I trade this market?
This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.
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