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Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Polymarket$8.3M volEnds 1 Jan 2027

On Polymarket, “↑5.5k” is currently priced highest at 99%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

Odds history

↑5.5k99%↑6k96%↑6.5k93%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

↑5.5k

$5.5K vol

99%

+0.9 pts 24h

Yes 100¢No 1¢

↑6k

$33.4K vol

96%

Yes 98¢No 6¢

↑6.5k

$130.0K vol

93%

-1.8 pts 24h

Yes 94¢No 7¢

↑7k

$9.6K vol

76%

-3.0 pts 24h

Yes 80¢No 29¢

↑7.5k

$232.9K vol

35%

-1.5 pts 24h

Yes 36¢No 67¢

↑10k

$6.5M vol

5%

+0.3 pts 24h

Yes 5¢No 96¢

↑12.5k

$361.9K vol

3%

-0.1 pts 24h

Yes 5¢No 99¢

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Climate & Science
Scheduled deadline
1 Jan 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?”?

On Polymarket, “↑5.5k” is currently priced highest at 99%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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