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PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4 by...?

Polymarket$1.1K volEnds 1 Dec 2026

On Polymarket, “November 30, 2026” is currently priced highest at 49%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

Odds history

November 30, 202649%November 15, 20265%
0%25%50%75%100%3 Nov5 Nov6 Nov8 Nov9 Nov

Current odds

November 30, 2026

$100 vol

49%

-0.5 pts 24h

November 15, 2026

$176 vol

5%

-1.5 pts 24h

Last updated 9 Nov 2026 21:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Climate & Science › Science
Scheduled deadline
1 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) raises Mayon Volcano to Alert Level 4 or higher at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A raise directly to Alert Level 5 qualifies. A qualifying raise counts even if PHIVOLCS later lowers the alert level. Statements that the alert level may be raised, evacuation orders, and declarations by other agencies or local governments will not be considered for resolution. Resolution turns on the time PHIVOLCS issues the bulletin or advisory raising the alert level, not the time of the underlying volcanic activity. The resolution source for this market will be official PHIVOLCS Mayon Volcano bulletins and advisories (https://wovodat.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/bulletin/list-of-bulletin). Please note that this market is about the alert level according to PHIVOLCS, not according to any other sources.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4 by...?”?

On Polymarket, “November 30, 2026” is currently priced highest at 49%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) raises Mayon Volcano to Alert Level 4 or higher at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A raise directly to Alert Level 5 qualifies. A qualifying raise counts even if PHIVOLCS later lowers the alert level. Statements that the alert level may be raised, evacuation orders, and declarations by other agencies or local governments will not be considered for resolution. Resolution turns on the time PHIVOLCS issues the…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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