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November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Polymarket$11.6K volEnds 29 Dec 2026

1st hottest leads at 94% on Polymarket, ahead of 2nd hottest at 5%.

Odds history

1st hottest94%2nd hottest5%3rd hottest1%
0%25%50%75%100%30 Oct2 Nov4 Nov7 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

1st hottest

$5.3K vol

94%

Yes 96¢No 8¢

2nd hottest

$4.8K vol

5%

-0.1 pts 24h

Yes 8¢No 97¢

3rd hottest

$944 vol

<1%

+0.1 pts 24h

Yes 1¢No 100¢

4th or lower

$606 vol

<1%

Yes 0¢No

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Climate & Science › Science
Scheduled deadline
29 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?”?

1st hottest leads at 94% on Polymarket, ahead of 2nd hottest at 5%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 29 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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