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Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?

Polymarket$4.8K volEnds 1 Dec 2026

On Polymarket, “5600+” is currently priced highest at 97%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

Odds history

5600+97%5800+77%6000+36%
0%25%50%75%100%30 Oct2 Nov4 Nov7 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

5600+

$1.4K vol

97%

+0.1 pts 24h

Yes 98¢No 5¢

5800+

$847 vol

77%

+6.0 pts 24h

Yes 82¢No 29¢

6000+

$1.5K vol

36%

-10.0 pts 24h

Yes 59¢No 88¢

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Climate & Science › Measles
Scheduled deadline
1 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?”?

On Polymarket, “5600+” is currently priced highest at 97%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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