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Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Polymarket$186.0K volEnds 27 Jan 2027

Pause-Hike-Pause leads at 77% on Polymarket, ahead of Pause-Pause-Pause at 10%.

Odds history

Pause-Hike-Pause77%Pause-Pause-Pause10%Pause-Pause-Hike8%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

Pause-Hike-Pause

$97.7K vol

77%

+6.0 pts 24h

Pause-Pause-Pause

$23.3K vol

10%

+1.0 pts 24h

Pause-Pause-Hike

$16.1K vol

8%

-5.4 pts 24h

Pause-Hike-Hike

$31.6K vol

6%

-1.1 pts 24h

Other

$6.8K vol

<1%

-0.5 pts 24h

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Economy › Fed
Scheduled deadline
27 Jan 2027

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)”?

Pause-Hike-Pause leads at 77% on Polymarket, ahead of Pause-Pause-Pause at 10%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 27 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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