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Bank of Brazil decision in December?

Polymarket$68.6K volEnds 9 Dec 2026

No Change leads at 89% on Polymarket, ahead of 25 bps decrease at 7%.

Odds history

No Change89%25 bps decrease7%50+ bps decrease2%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

No Change

$25.1K vol

89%

+0.5 pts 24h

25 bps decrease

$20.3K vol

7%

+1.3 pts 24h

50+ bps decrease

$9.4K vol

2%

-0.5 pts 24h

25 bps increase

$7.8K vol

1%

-0.4 pts 24h

50+ bps increase

$6.1K vol

<1%

-0.4 pts 24h

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:00 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Economy › Brazil
Scheduled deadline
9 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Bank of Brazil decision in December?”?

No Change leads at 89% on Polymarket, ahead of 25 bps decrease at 7%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 9 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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