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Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Polymarket$6.9M volEnds 5 Jan 2027

On Polymarket, “↑$1.5T” is currently priced highest at 80%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

Odds history

↑$1.5T80%↑$1.75T57%↑$2.0T32%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

↑$1.5T

$430.6K vol

80%

+7.4 pts 24h

↑$1.75T

$848.8K vol

59%

+16.0 pts 24h

↑$2.0T

$989.5K vol

32%

↑$2.25T

$45.2K vol

18%

+3.0 pts 24h

↑$2.5T

$570.3K vol

12%

+0.5 pts 24h

↑$3.0T

$1.8M vol

8%

+1.0 pts 24h

↓$800B

$189.4K vol

5%

-0.7 pts 24h

↓$700B

$87.1K vol

3%

-0.5 pts 24h

↑$4.0T

$967.6K vol

2%

-0.1 pts 24h

↑$5.0T

$454.6K vol

2%

-0.4 pts 24h

↓$600B

$55.1K vol

1%

-0.8 pts 24h

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Tech & AI › Finance
Scheduled deadline
5 Jan 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?”?

On Polymarket, “↑$1.5T” is currently priced highest at 80%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 5 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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