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Which company has the best AI model end of November?

Polymarket$1.1M volEnds 1 Dec 2026

Google leads at 68% on Polymarket, ahead of Anthropic at 30%.

Odds history

Google67%Anthropic31%OpenAI2%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

Google

$201.0K vol

68%

-6.0 pts 24h

Anthropic

$198.2K vol

30%

+6.5 pts 24h

OpenAI

$113.0K vol

2%

-0.7 pts 24h

Meta

$94.2K vol

<1%

Alibaba

$85.7K vol

<1%

Z.ai

$74.2K vol

<1%

SpaceXAI

$100.4K vol

<1%

Moonshot

$50.5K vol

<1%

Baidu

$5.5K vol

<1%

Xiaomi

$37.4K vol

<1%

DeepSeek

$79.6K vol

<1%

Amazon

$2.3K vol

<1%

ByteDance

$5.5K vol

<1%

Nvidia

$1.1K vol

<1%

Thinky

$1.9K vol

<1%

MiniMax

$2.5K vol

<1%

Mistral

$2.3K vol

<1%

Meituan

$4.0K vol

<1%

Tencent

$3.5K vol

<1%

StepFun

$2.4K vol

<1%

Microsoft

$4.2K vol

<1%

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Tech & AI › AI
Scheduled deadline
1 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Which company has the best AI model end of November?”?

Google leads at 68% on Polymarket, ahead of Anthropic at 30%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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