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Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Polymarket$209.2K volEnds 1 Jul 2027

On Polymarket, “DeepSeek” is currently priced highest at 27%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

Odds history

DeepSeek27%Moonshot AI23%ByteDance16%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

DeepSeek

$48.4K vol

27%

+1.0 pts 24h

Moonshot AI

$20.9K vol

23%

+4.0 pts 24h

ByteDance

$61.6K vol

16%

+7.0 pts 24h

Xiaomi

$78.3K vol

13%

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Tech & AI › AI
Scheduled deadline
1 Jul 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?”?

On Polymarket, “DeepSeek” is currently priced highest at 27%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Jul 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here:…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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