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Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Polymarket$2.7M volEnds 1 Feb 2027

Avengers: Doomsday leads at 72% on Polymarket, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 26%.

Odds history

Avengers: Doomsday72%Spider-Man: Brand New Day26%The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping0%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

Avengers: Doomsday

$653.7K vol

72%

+5.0 pts 24h

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

$389.0K vol

26%

-2.0 pts 24h

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

$83.7K vol

<1%

Dune: Messiah

$188.2K vol

<1%

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Culture › The Odyssey
Scheduled deadline
1 Feb 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?”?

Avengers: Doomsday leads at 72% on Polymarket, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 26%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Feb 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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