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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Polymarket$3.9M volEnds 2 Mar 2027

1 leads at 92% on Polymarket, ahead of 2 at 8%.

Odds history

192%28%30%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

1

$773.7K vol

92%

2

$490.1K vol

8%

+2.5 pts 24h

3

$549.7K vol

<1%

4

$565.5K vol

<1%

5

$909.3K vol

<1%

6 or lower

$606.0K vol

<1%

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Culture › Weather & Science
Scheduled deadline
2 Mar 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?”?

1 leads at 92% on Polymarket, ahead of 2 at 8%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 2 Mar 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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