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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Polymarket$2.3M volEnds 1 Jan 2027

Polymarket traders give this a 35% chance of happening.

Odds history

Yes35%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

$2.3M vol

35%

-10.0 pts 24h

Yes 35¢No 66¢

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Politics › Trump Cabinet
Scheduled deadline
1 Jan 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?”?

Polymarket traders give this a 35% chance of happening.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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