Computing.net

Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

Polymarket$28.5K volEnds 1 Dec 2026

No release by November 30 leads at 79% on Polymarket, ahead of November 17 at 14%.

Odds history

No release by November 3074%November 1714%November 1112%
0%25%50%75%100%3 Nov5 Nov6 Nov8 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

No release by November 30

$13.9K vol

79%

+9.5 pts 24h

November 17

$270 vol

14%

+13.3 pts 24h

November 11

$361 vol

11%

+10.8 pts 24h

November 28

$1.3K vol

5%

-3.4 pts 24h

November 15

$444 vol

4%

+4.1 pts 24h

November 21

$388 vol

3%

+0.1 pts 24h

November 10

$387 vol

3%

+2.9 pts 24h

November 16

$393 vol

3%

+1.7 pts 24h

November 14

$696 vol

2%

+0.8 pts 24h

November 20

$566 vol

2%

+0.7 pts 24h

November 23

$343 vol

2%

-0.1 pts 24h

November 25

$463 vol

1%

November 30

$513 vol

1%

November 29

$502 vol

1%

-1.6 pts 24h

November 13

$340 vol

<1%

-8.1 pts 24h

November 12

$324 vol

<1%

November 19

$273 vol

<1%

November 22

$305 vol

<1%

-0.1 pts 24h

November 24

$415 vol

<1%

+0.2 pts 24h

November 27

$479 vol

<1%

-1.9 pts 24h

November 26

$1.5K vol

<1%

November 18

$299 vol

<1%

+0.1 pts 24h

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Tech & AI › AI
Scheduled deadline
1 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?”?

No release by November 30 leads at 79% on Polymarket, ahead of November 17 at 14%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

Related news

Prediction markets carry substantial risk and may be restricted where you live. Odds are market prices from Polymarket, not predictions or advice from Computing.net.