Computing.net

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

Polymarket$50.5K volEnds 1 Dec 2026

November 10 leads at 8% on Polymarket, ahead of No release by November 30 at 1%.

Odds history

November 108%No release by November 301%November 241%
0%25%50%75%100%29 Oct1 Nov4 Nov6 Nov9 Nov

Current odds

November 10

$5.2K vol

8%

-16.2 pts 24h

No release by November 30

$7.9K vol

1%

-11.1 pts 24h

November 24

$1.3K vol

1%

-0.1 pts 24h

November 13

$695 vol

<1%

-2.8 pts 24h

November 17

$765 vol

<1%

-2.7 pts 24h

November 19

$1.1K vol

<1%

-10.9 pts 24h

November 25

$1.4K vol

<1%

-3.0 pts 24h

November 27

$678 vol

<1%

-3.5 pts 24h

November 28

$3.4K vol

<1%

-0.1 pts 24h

November 30

$1.8K vol

<1%

-3.6 pts 24h

November 12

$918 vol

<1%

-16.9 pts 24h

November 14

$753 vol

<1%

-3.9 pts 24h

November 18

$912 vol

<1%

-23.4 pts 24h

November 16

$623 vol

<1%

-2.5 pts 24h

November 26

$582 vol

<1%

-0.3 pts 24h

November 11

$1.4K vol

<1%

-8.0 pts 24h

November 15

$352 vol

<1%

-0.4 pts 24h

November 20

$1.2K vol

<1%

-0.4 pts 24h

November 22

$651 vol

<1%

-0.4 pts 24h

November 29

$913 vol

<1%

-0.4 pts 24h

November 21

$367 vol

<1%

-0.5 pts 24h

November 23

$369 vol

<1%

-0.5 pts 24h

Last updated 9 Nov 2026 19:00 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Tech & AI › AI
Scheduled deadline
1 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?”?

November 10 leads at 8% on Polymarket, ahead of No release by November 30 at 1%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

Related news

Prediction markets carry substantial risk and may be restricted where you live. Odds are market prices from Polymarket, not predictions or advice from Computing.net.