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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Polymarket$1.5M volEnds 31 Dec 2026

On Polymarket, “November 30” is currently priced highest at 99%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

Odds history

November 3099%December 3199%November 1999%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct25 Oct2 Nov9 Nov

Current odds

November 30

$37.8K vol

99%

+10.0 pts 24h

December 31

$75.4K vol

99%

+1.0 pts 24h

November 19

$72.7K vol

99%

+33.3 pts 24h

November 10

$41.6K vol

96%

+69.7 pts 24h

November 12

$26.3K vol

96%

+48.6 pts 24h

Last updated 9 Nov 2026 19:00 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Tech & AI › AI
Scheduled deadline
31 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?”?

On Polymarket, “November 30” is currently priced highest at 99%. Each outcome is a separate yes/no market.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 31 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6,…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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