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Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Polymarket$7.8M volEnds 2 Jan 2027

SpaceX leads at 90% on Polymarket, ahead of Anthropic at 10%.

Odds history

SpaceX90%Anthropic10%OpenAI0%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

SpaceX

$1.4M vol

90%

+1.0 pts 24h

Anthropic

$1.6M vol

10%

+0.2 pts 24h

OpenAI

$765.3K vol

<1%

ByteDance

$239.6K vol

<1%

Stripe

$189.6K vol

<1%

Databricks

$679.8K vol

<1%

SHEIN

$662.8K vol

<1%

Waymo

$398.4K vol

<1%

Revolut

$721.4K vol

<1%

Discord

$245.0K vol

<1%

Perplexity AI

$180.4K vol

<1%

Kraken

$684.3K vol

<1%

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Tech & AI › Climate & Science
Scheduled deadline
2 Jan 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?”?

SpaceX leads at 90% on Polymarket, ahead of Anthropic at 10%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 2 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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Prediction markets carry substantial risk and may be restricted where you live. Odds are market prices from Polymarket, not predictions or advice from Computing.net.