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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Polymarket$77.4M volEnds 1 Jan 2027

Polymarket traders give this a 5% chance of happening.

Odds history

Yes5%
0%25%50%75%100%10 Oct18 Oct25 Oct2 Nov9 Nov

Current odds

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$1.3M vol

5%

Last updated 9 Nov 2026 18:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Politics › Iran Regime
Scheduled deadline
1 Jan 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?”?

Polymarket traders give this a 5% chance of happening.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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