TLDR

  • First Solar (FSLR) shares declined approximately 15% following the company’s announcement of 2026 revenue projections between $4.9B and $5.2B, substantially lower than the analyst consensus of roughly $6.16B.
  • Fourth-quarter earnings reached $4.84 per share, falling short of projections by 30 cents, while revenue surpassed expectations at $1.68B compared to the anticipated $1.57B.
  • The company achieved record fiscal 2025 net sales of $5.2B, representing growth from the previous year’s $4.2B.
  • Management anticipates tariff-related costs between $125M and $135M for 2026, while pointing to permitting challenges and regulatory shifts under the Trump administration.
  • A South Carolina finishing facility will commence operations in Q4 2026, designed to enhance freight efficiency and meet domestic content requirements.

First Solar experienced a significant decline of roughly 15% on Wednesday following the release of the company’s 2026 revenue projections, which fell considerably short of Wall Street’s expectations.

The solar panel manufacturer projected 2026 net sales ranging from $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion. The analyst community had anticipated approximately $6.16 billion, based on FactSet data.

The substantial gap between projections and expectations triggered a sharp market reaction.


FSLR Stock Card
First Solar, Inc., FSLR

During the fourth quarter, First Solar delivered earnings of $4.84 per share, coming in 30 cents below the consensus analyst projection. Quarterly revenue climbed 11% year-over-year to reach $1.68 billion, surpassing the anticipated $1.57 billion.

While revenue exceeded expectations, the earnings shortfall combined with disappointing forward guidance triggered the stock’s steep decline.

The full-year 2025 performance demonstrated strength. Net sales reached an all-time high of $5.2 billion, climbing from $4.2 billion in 2024, propelled by increased module shipments. Annual earnings totaled $14.21 per share.

Heading into Tuesday’s announcement, FSLR had already declined nearly 7% for the year-to-date period, despite recording gains exceeding 55% over the preceding 12 months.

Policy Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook

Management spoke candidly about the factors pressuring the 2026 outlook: the evolving U.S. policy landscape.

First Solar indicated its projections assume the continuation of existing policies. President Trump has implemented fresh tariffs of 15% on select imports for a 150-day period, supplementing previously established aluminum and steel duties.

Management anticipates total tariff-related expenses ranging from $125 million to $135 million during the current year.

Delays in permitting processes and a suspension of major project authorizations under the present administration have created additional challenges across the solar industry. The Trump administration’s energy priorities emphasize oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power — representing a substantial departure from the renewable energy focus of the Biden era.

Demand for First Solar’s Series 6 module — manufactured in Malaysia and Vietnam for utility-scale solar installations — faces constraints within this regulatory environment.

New U.S. Facility Aims to Offset Some Headwinds

To mitigate tariff exposure, First Solar is establishing a new finishing facility in South Carolina, scheduled to begin operations during Q4 2026.

The installation will utilize components from its Southeast Asian manufacturing sites while completing production on U.S. soil, facilitating improvements in freight economics, tariff management, and compliance with domestic content standards.

CEO Mark Widmar highlighted the company’s strategy during this challenging period: “As we navigated a rapidly evolving environment, we maintained a disciplined approach to contracting and remained anchored in our core principle of pricing and delivery certainty.”

First Solar also brought a new Louisiana manufacturing facility online in 2025 and has committed to constructing an additional plant in South Carolina.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Christopher Dendrinos characterized the underwhelming 2026 outlook as a “clearing event” that may set the stage for volume growth in 2027 — assuming additional tariffs are avoided.

Citi analyst Vikram Bagri offered this perspective: “First Solar is well understood to be a 2027 story with several positive catalysts on the way.”

During premarket trading Wednesday, FSLR declined as much as 16.7%.