Key Highlights

  • XRP declined 15% from its March peak of $1.60 to current levels around $1.36
  • Trading activity shows the price holding below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average and $1.40 resistance
  • Open Interest surged from $886 million to $946 million while prices moved lower
  • OI-weighted funding rate sits at -0.0086, indicating traders are paying premiums for bearish positions
  • Approximately $314 million in short positions are concentrated in the $1.375 to $1.405 range, establishing conditions for forced liquidations

XRP faces continued selling pressure following its inability to maintain support above the $1.40 threshold. Between late February and mid-March, the digital asset posted impressive gains of 26%, climbing from $1.27 on February 28 to reach $1.60 by March 17. This upward momentum encountered solid resistance at $1.60, leading to a reversal in trend.

xrp price
XRP Price

Current market data places XRP at approximately $1.36, representing a 15% pullback from the March high. The asset touched a local bottom at $1.3358 before entering a consolidation phase. Price action remains beneath both the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level calculated from the recent downward movement.

Technical analysis reveals a bearish trend line on the hourly timeframe, placing immediate resistance at $1.3750. Bulls would need to reclaim $1.3850—corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement—before challenging the critical $1.40 level.

Open Interest Expands Despite Price Weakness

Market observers have noted the unusual relationship between falling prices and rising Open Interest. Data from March 25 showed XRP trading at $1.42 with total Open Interest measuring $886 million. Twenty-four hours later, as the price slipped to $1.36, Open Interest had expanded to $946 million. Recent figures indicate a modest pullback to approximately $933 million.

CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn highlighted this price-OI divergence, describing the market structure as “juicy” while emphasizing the need for careful risk management.

The OI-weighted funding rate has fallen to -0.0086. This negative reading indicates that traders holding short positions are paying fees to maintain their bearish bets, confirming the current dominance of sellers in the derivatives market.

Conditions Align for Potential Short Squeeze

Liquidation maps from Coinglass reveal substantial positioning at key price levels: approximately $70 million in short contracts sit at $1.375, with an additional $44.98 million clustered near $1.3785. Across the broader $1.375 to $1.405 corridor, around $314 million in short positions are accumulated.

Should XRP rally into this zone, automated liquidations of these positions would create forced buying pressure, potentially accelerating upward momentum. Markets refer to this phenomenon as a short squeeze.

Traders are monitoring two distinct possibilities. The first scenario involves XRP remaining below $1.37, allowing bears to maintain control and potentially driving the asset toward $1.3350 or $1.3220. Further weakness could test the $1.30 psychological support zone.

The alternative path sees XRP breaking into the $1.375–$1.405 liquidation cluster, initiating cascading short closures. Such a development could propel the price toward $1.4120 and higher levels in short order.

Current market conditions show XRP trading near $1.36, maintaining position above the $1.35 support threshold, while Open Interest stands at roughly $933 million.