Key Takeaways
- Tesla shares have declined approximately 20% since the start of the year, marking six consecutive weeks of losses through Monday, March 30.
- Analysts anticipate Q1 2026 deliveries will reach approximately 366,000 units, compared to 337,000 in the same period last year.
- Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, has stated that Cybercab volume manufacturing will commence this April.
- The company anticipates receiving supervised FSD clearance in the Netherlands during April, which could facilitate wider European Union market entry.
- Earnings per share forecasts for Q1 stand at 41 cents, representing growth from the 27 cents reported in Q1 2025.
Tesla (TSLA) shares were changing hands at $364.42 in early Monday trading, gaining 0.7%, while remaining down approximately 20% for the year.
Shares of Tesla climbed 0.7% during early Monday sessions following a challenging period marked by six straight weeks of declining prices. The stock surrendered 2.8% on Friday, concluding that week with a 1.7% loss and extending the six-week downturn to roughly 13%.
The decline began during the week Tesla released its Q4 2025 financial results, which surpassed market expectations. The automaker delivered earnings per share of 50 cents, topping the Street’s 43-cent forecast. However, this represented a significant drop from the 73 cents earned during Q4 2024, leaving market participants looking for signs of renewed expansion.
The upcoming opportunity to gauge that expansion arrives Thursday, when Tesla plans to publish its Q1 2026 delivery figures before the Good Friday market closure.
Analysts are forecasting approximately 366,000 vehicle deliveries during the quarter, representing an increase from the 337,000 units delivered in the comparable year-ago period. UBS disrupted consensus expectations in mid-March by issuing a forecast of just 345,000 units—falling short of the roughly 365,000-unit analyst consensus. Trading on prediction platform Polymarket suggests a 62% probability that deliveries will fall below 350,000.
Tesla recorded 336,681 deliveries during Q1 2025. Surpassing that figure by a meaningful margin would indicate the sales deceleration experienced during the first half of last year—linked to the transition to an updated Model Y—has concluded.
Cybercab Manufacturing Timeline Takes Center Stage
Beyond delivery metrics, market observers will be monitoring progress on Tesla’s autonomous taxi initiatives. Musk has committed to launching volume manufacturing of Cybercab, Tesla’s purpose-built robotaxi vehicle, during April.
The complexity: Tesla currently lacks regulatory clearances for Cybercab operations. Ramping up production without these approvals creates risks related to capital allocation and inventory accumulation. Nevertheless, initiating production demonstrates execution capability and maintains investor attention on the robotaxi business opportunity.
Tesla introduced a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June of last year and plans to extend operations to more cities during the first half of 2026. Las Vegas has emerged as a potential expansion market.
Full Self-Driving Targets European Market
Tesla anticipates receiving approval for supervised full self-driving (FSD) operations in the Netherlands this April. The Netherlands Vehicle Authority has confirmed both parties are “currently completing the final steps of the assessment process.”
Clearance in the Netherlands may establish a framework for expanded EU market access—whether through comprehensive bloc-wide authorization or sequential country-level approvals. Tesla has experienced market share erosion in Europe, and an FSD deployment across that region could strengthen the competitive standing of its vehicle lineup.
Beyond delivery numbers, Cybercab developments, and FSD European expansion, Tesla plans to introduce the third generation of its Optimus humanoid robot in upcoming weeks and may present the frequently postponed Roadster.
Analyst projections place Q1 2026 earnings per share at 41 cents, up from 27 cents during Q1 2025. Market participants will probably need to await the earnings conference call—scheduled roughly three weeks following the delivery announcement—to receive comprehensive updates on robotaxi expansion plans and the Optimus development schedule.
