TLDR
- Steel Dynamics projected Q1 EPS between $2.73 and $2.77, significantly below the $3.24 analyst consensus
- Shares declined 1.3% during premarket hours on Tuesday
- The guidance represents growth from $1.44 EPS in the prior-year quarter and $1.82 in Q4
- Order backlog has increased more than 35% year-over-year, with visibility extending through Q3 2026
- Industry peers Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs experienced premarket declines following the announcement
Steel Dynamics (STLD) released its first-quarter 2026 earnings forecast on Tuesday, revealing expectations that fell short of Wall Street projections. The steelmaker anticipates EPS ranging from $2.73 to $2.77, while analysts had been expecting $3.24, prompting shares to slide 1.3% during premarket trading.
When viewed independently, the forecast shows positive momentum. The Q1 projection represents an increase from $1.82 EPS in the previous quarter and $1.44 during Q1 2025, demonstrating year-over-year growth. The challenge arose because analyst expectations had climbed higher, creating a gap between projections and reality.
Management attributed the sequential improvement to enhanced steel operations performance. The company anticipates greater shipment volumes combined with expanded metal margins — driven by average selling prices rising more quickly than scrap input costs — which should elevate profitability versus Q4 2025 results.
The metals recycling division is projected to deliver improved earnings as well, supported by higher selling values for both ferrous and nonferrous materials. Shipment volumes in this segment face headwinds from weather-related disruptions during January and February that impacted winter operations.
Steel fabrication operations are expected to maintain performance levels comparable to Q4, with increased volumes offsetting some margin compression from elevated raw material expenses.
A particularly noteworthy metric: STLD’s customer order backlog has grown by more than 35% compared to the prior year and extends visibility through Q3 2026. This indicates sustained demand momentum across the business.
Management highlighted robust demand spanning non-residential construction, energy infrastructure, and automotive manufacturing sectors.
Columbus Aluminum Mill Progress
Steel Dynamics advanced the commissioning process for its Columbus, Mississippi aluminum flat rolled products facility throughout the quarter. The plant has successfully manufactured finished products serving the industrial and beverage can markets, securing product qualifications from multiple can sheet customers.
The facility has also produced aluminum hot band tailored for automotive applications — marking an important achievement as the company expands into additional product categories.
Share repurchase activity moderated during Q1. Capital deployment prioritized the company’s annual profit-sharing distribution of approximately $126 million alongside increased working capital requirements for aluminum operations. The company repurchased around $66 million worth of shares during the period and expects to resume standard buyback levels in Q2.
STLD has delivered dividend increases for 13 straight years. Recently, the company announced a 6% dividend boost to $0.53 per share quarterly, with payment scheduled for early April.
Shares have advanced approximately 37% over the trailing twelve months, supported by Trump’s implementation of tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products. Recent weeks have seen sector pressure emerge from uncertainty regarding potential tariff modifications or reductions.
Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs Also Lower
The below-consensus guidance created spillover effects throughout the steel sector. Nucor (NUE) shares declined 0.5% in premarket trading, while Cleveland-Cliffs dropped 0.2%.
Steel Dynamics is scheduled to release complete Q1 2026 financial results following market close on Monday, April 20.
Regarding merger and acquisition activity, Steel Dynamics and SGH Ltd. had increased their combined takeover proposal for BlueScope Steel to $11 billion — representing a 14% premium — though BlueScope declined the offer. The bidding companies have indicated they will maintain their current offer unless another suitor presents a competing bid.
