TLDR

  • Probability on Polymarket for CLARITY Act passage in 2026 stands at 38%, down from 61%
  • Markup scheduled for completion by end of May, according to Senator Bernie Moreno
  • Galaxy Digital analysts estimate 50% probability of legislative approval this year
  • Banking industry requests additional 60-day comment window for stablecoin regulation feedback
  • TD Cowen identifies five additional complications alongside the stablecoin yield controversy

The United States Senate faces mounting challenges in advancing the CLARITY Act, a comprehensive crypto market structure bill that received House approval in July 2025. Forward movement has encountered resistance due to ongoing disputes between traditional banking institutions and digital asset advocates, while the legislative calendar continues to compress.

During an April 22 address to attendees in Washington, D.C., Senator Bernie Moreno indicated his expectation for markup completion “by the end of May.” He dismissed banking sector resistance to stablecoin yields as “a lot of noise in the system” that amounts to something “completely fake.”

Senator Thom Tillis has advised Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott to place the markup on the May calendar, noting that additional time remains necessary for negotiators to bridge differences between banking and crypto stakeholders regarding stablecoin yield provisions.

Digital asset supporters are voicing concern about delays. Senator Cynthia Lummis and advocacy organization The Digital Chamber have called on the Senate Banking Committee to advance the markup without further postponement.

The American Bankers Association delivered correspondence on Tuesday to the Treasury Department, the FDIC, FinCEN, and Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. The letter requested an additional 60-day period for submitting commentary on regulations connected to the GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation, which received presidential signature in July 2025.

According to the ABA, regulatory frameworks from various agencies contain substantial dependencies on the finalized Office of the Comptroller of the Currency rulemaking, preventing substantive feedback until that framework reaches completion.

Prediction platforms reflect the scheduling setbacks. Polymarket currently displays a 38% probability for CLARITY Act passage in 2026, representing a 23-point decline. Kalshi assigns 14% odds before July and 39% before August.

The likelihood of President Trump affixing his signature before 2027 has increased modestly to 58%, up from 53% earlier in the week.

What Galaxy Digital Is Saying

Digital asset firm Galaxy Digital places the probability of legislative success this year at approximately 50-50. Head of Research Alex Thorn identified several outstanding matters requiring resolution, including stablecoin yield provisions, DeFi regulatory framework, ethics clauses, and protections for developers.

The legislation must navigate Senate Banking Committee approval, secure 60 votes on the Senate floor, and undergo reconciliation with versions emerging from the Agriculture Committee and the House.

The Senate Calendar Problem

Galaxy Digital highlighted that the Senate’s operational schedule before the August recess creates significant constraints. Senators maintain session through April, reconvene May 11 through May 22, followed by only three weeks each during June and July before entering a five-week August recess.

Thorn cautioned that markup delays extending beyond mid-May would substantially diminish the probability of enacting the legislation this year.

TD Cowen enumerated five additional complications: insufficient commissioner appointments at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, outstanding prediction market regulatory questions, examination of Trump-associated World Liberty Financial, reported Iranian cryptocurrency utilization for Strait of Hormuz passage fees raising anti-money laundering considerations, and the Credit Card Competition Act.

Senator Lummis has cautioned that failure to advance the bill this year could result in no further consideration until 2030.