TLDR

  • Seaport Research Partners issued a Sell rating on Qualcomm (QCOM), moving from Neutral, with a $100 price target
  • The stock has declined 24% year-to-date, currently trading near $129.82
  • Analyst projections show mobile phone volumes declining 10%–15% in 2026 driven by memory cost inflation
  • Apple plans to eliminate Qualcomm completely from iPhone production, with zero content expected in upcoming year’s devices
  • The top five smartphone manufacturers, with four exceptions, have moved to in-house processor development

Qualcomm stands among the semiconductor sector’s weaker performers this year. Shares have fallen approximately 24% from January levels, and Seaport Research Partners anticipates further declines ahead.


QCOM Stock Card
QUALCOMM Incorporated, QCOM

Seaport moved QCOM to Sell from Neutral on Monday, assigning a $100 price target that suggests roughly 23% downside from present trading levels.

The analyst thesis centers on a straightforward premise: smartphone market pressures are intensifying, placing Qualcomm squarely in the crosshairs.

Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg points to escalating memory chip costs as a key pressure point for device manufacturers. Handset makers face a choice between raising prices or reducing memory capacity. Both scenarios lead consumers to extend device replacement cycles.

The research firm projects global smartphone unit sales will contract 10% to 15% in 2026. This represents a substantial reduction in Qualcomm’s total available market for mobile processors.

Apple, representing Qualcomm’s biggest customer relationship, appears set to eliminate the chipmaker entirely from iPhone production. Seaport’s analysis indicates Qualcomm’s iPhone component share will reach zero in devices launching next year.

While markets have anticipated this development, the revenue impact remains substantial.

Android Segment Offers Limited Relief

Premium Android devices had represented a relatively strong business segment for Qualcomm in recent quarters. However, these flagship products face the most severe impact from memory component cost inflation.

This dynamic creates dual headwinds for Qualcomm: reduced unit volumes combined with lower royalty rates on remaining shipments.

Chinese smartphone manufacturers may shift focus toward entry-level products, creating opportunities for competitor MediaTek or forcing Qualcomm into aggressive price competition. Industry reports indicate Qualcomm has already reduced pricing on certain models, with Seaport expecting broader discounting ahead.

Adding complexity, four among the five largest smartphone vendors have launched internal processor development programs. This trend erodes Qualcomm’s competitive position across multiple market segments simultaneously.

Downgrade Momentum Builds

Seaport joins other analysts expressing caution on the stock. BofA Securities resumed coverage last week with an Underperform rating, highlighting projected revenue and earnings growth trailing broader semiconductor industry averages. BofA specifically identified the anticipated $7–8 billion revenue loss from Apple as a significant headwind.

Mizuho shifted QCOM to Neutral from Outperform in January, emphasizing similar challenges in the company’s core handset business.

Some analysts maintain optimistic stances. Piper Sandler holds an Overweight rating with a $200 target. Loop Capital upgraded shares to Buy, emphasizing diversification opportunities. Wells Fargo adjusted its view to Equal Weight from Underweight, highlighting Qualcomm’s data center initiatives.

Qualcomm exceeded consensus estimates in its December quarter report, though March quarter guidance disappointed due to memory supply constraints affecting Chinese OEM demand.

Shares traded around $129.99 in premarket activity Monday, declining approximately 1% from prior close.