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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Polymarket$5.7M volEnds 1 Jan 2027

Polymarket traders give this a 2% chance of happening.

Odds history

Yes2%
0%25%50%75%100%10 Oct18 Oct25 Oct2 Nov9 Nov

Current odds

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

$5.7M vol

2%

-0.1 pts 24h

Yes 2¢No 98¢

Last updated 9 Nov 2026 18:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Crypto › Crypto Culture
Scheduled deadline
1 Jan 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?”?

Polymarket traders give this a 2% chance of happening.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Jan 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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Prediction markets carry substantial risk and may be restricted where you live. Odds are market prices from Polymarket, not predictions or advice from Computing.net.