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Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Polymarket$85.2K volEnds 1 Feb 2027

Toy Story 5 leads at 82% on Polymarket, ahead of The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping at 17%.

Odds history

Toy Story 582%The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping17%Dune: Messiah2%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

Toy Story 5

$56.3K vol

82%

-11.0 pts 24h

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

$9.7K vol

17%

+12.7 pts 24h

Dune: Messiah

$7.1K vol

2%

-1.2 pts 24h

Avengers: Doomsday

$5.8K vol

<1%

-1.0 pts 24h

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

$2.3K vol

<1%

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

$2.3K vol

<1%

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:50 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Culture › Movies
Scheduled deadline
1 Feb 2027

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?”?

Toy Story 5 leads at 82% on Polymarket, ahead of The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping at 17%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 1 Feb 2027, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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