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Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Polymarket$4.1M volEnds 31 Dec 2026

Google leads at 59% on Polymarket, ahead of Anthropic at 36%.

Odds history

Google59%Anthropic36%OpenAI2%
0%25%50%75%100%11 Oct18 Oct26 Oct2 Nov10 Nov

Current odds

Google

$599.7K vol

59%

-6.5 pts 24h

Anthropic

$534.4K vol

36%

+7.0 pts 24h

OpenAI

$303.4K vol

2%

-1.9 pts 24h

Meta

$299.1K vol

<1%

-0.3 pts 24h

xAI

$254.0K vol

<1%

-0.4 pts 24h

Alibaba

$260.0K vol

<1%

DeepSeek

$226.8K vol

<1%

Z.ai

$259.6K vol

<1%

Moonshot

$238.3K vol

<1%

-0.1 pts 24h

Mistral

$300.1K vol

<1%

Meituan

$157.1K vol

<1%

Microsoft

$214.7K vol

<1%

Amazon

$159.7K vol

<1%

Baidu

$136.2K vol

<1%

ByteDance

$194.8K vol

<1%

Last updated 10 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. Prices in cents per share; a share pays $1 if its outcome happens.

Market details

Platform
Polymarket
Category
Tech & AI › Tech
Scheduled deadline
31 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Full rules on Polymarket

FAQ

›What are the current odds for “Which company has best AI model end of 2026?”?

Google leads at 59% on Polymarket, ahead of Anthropic at 36%.

›When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to end on 31 Dec 2026, though the market can resolve earlier if the outcome is decided.

›How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including…

›Where can I trade this market?

This market trades on Polymarket. Prediction markets may not be available in every country, so check the platform's terms before trading.

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