Key Takeaways
- Precious metals experienced significant declines following Trump’s Middle East policy address, with spot gold retreating 4.3%
- The President announced plans to take aggressive action against Iran within a two to three week timeframe
- Silver experienced a sharper 7% decline, with platinum and palladium following suit
- UBS analysts continue to project gold reaching an average of $5,000 per ounce during 2026
- The investment bank considers price retreats toward $4,000 as strategic entry points for investors
Precious metals markets witnessed substantial selling pressure Thursday following President Donald Trump’s evening address regarding Middle East tensions, which created uncertainty among investors.
Spot gold retreated by 4.3%, halting four consecutive sessions of gains. The metal traded at $4,562.88 per ounce as of 2:12 p.m. Singapore time. Silver experienced even steeper losses at 7%, settling at $69.86. Both platinum and palladium posted declines.
During his address, Trump characterized the conflict as approaching conclusion while simultaneously warning of imminent, severe military action against Iran within the coming two to three weeks. The President stated military objectives were close to fulfillment and called on allies dependent on Middle Eastern petroleum to contribute to resolving the near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
NOW – Trump on Iran: "We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next 2-3 weeks. We're going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong!" pic.twitter.com/knSmNB9OQk
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) April 2, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz previously served as a crucial passage for approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Apprehension regarding energy transport through this critical waterway contributed to rising oil prices.
The US dollar index advanced 0.4% in the wake of the presidential address. Stock markets declined as investors moved away from riskier assets.
Christopher Wong, strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, characterized Trump’s remarks as “basically framing the conflict as a military success story, not a ceasefire announcement.” He observed that gold had reached an intra-session peak of $4,800 earlier, though momentum appeared vulnerable given speculation about potential US ground operations in Iran.
Gold experienced challenging conditions throughout March. The yellow metal fell approximately 12% during that period, marking its most severe monthly decline since October 2008. Elevated oil prices sparked inflation worries, diminishing prospects for interest rate reductions and pressuring gold values.
Prior to the presidential speech, market participants had anticipated potential Federal Reserve rate cuts to bolster economic activity should the conflict extend beyond current expectations. Those expectations adjusted following Trump’s hawkish tone.
With markets preparing to close for Good Friday observance, Wong suggested that traders’ inclination to minimize exposure before the extended weekend influenced trading patterns.
UBS Maintains Positive Long-Term Outlook
Despite recent price action, UBS continues to hold an optimistic perspective on gold. Strategist Joni Teves indicated in Thursday commentary that the firm views current weakness as an attractive entry point.
UBS made modest adjustments to its 2026 gold projection, lowering it to $5,000 per ounce from $5,200, accounting for the recent pullback from January’s record high. Forecasts for 2027 remain unchanged at $4,800, with 2028 projections holding at $4,250.
Teves highlighted that speculative positions have been unwound and exchange-traded fund outflows have remained limited, creating space for investors to reestablish positions. Chinese gold ETFs have continued experiencing net inflows, while physical demand in mainland markets remains robust.
UBS indicated that price declines approaching the $4,000 threshold would represent favorable accumulation opportunities.
Silver Projections Adjusted Lower
UBS revised its 2026 silver projection downward to $91.9 per ounce from $105. Teves explained that silver’s dual function as an industrial metal increases its vulnerability to potential global economic deceleration.
Spot silver traded at $69.86 on Thursday.
