Key Takeaways
- NVDA shares have experienced approximately 3% decline following the Iran conflict that started Feb. 27
- Jim Cramer indicates that while war’s influence on Nvidia is difficult to measure, underlying demand fundamentals stay robust
- Wells Fargo suggests Nvidia’s $1T data center revenue projection for Blackwell and Rubin GPUs appears understated
- Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers projects 15–20%+ potential gains above 2026–2027 data center consensus figures
- Major cloud providers plan to install approximately 22GW and 25GW of AI infrastructure during 2026 and 2027
Nvidia shares have experienced a roughly 3% pullback following the outbreak of conflict in Iran on Feb. 27, prompting investors to assess what portion stems from geopolitical factors versus other market forces.
During Thursday’s “Mad Money” broadcast, CNBC’s Jim Cramer provided viewers with a framework for analyzing Nvidia’s current position. His assessment: the price movement extends beyond geopolitical events alone, while core business fundamentals remain intact.
“Nvidia is a big part of the stock market itself and so it’s the easiest stock in the world to trade,” Cramer said. “I think it’s going down because it is so easy to get back in at a lower level.”
President Trump announced an extension of the bombing pause on Iranian energy infrastructure through April 6, introducing additional volatility into market conditions. Cramer observed that predicting when hostilities might conclude remains essentially impossible.
Interest rates also factor in. Higher rates could slow the data center buildout by raising borrowing costs. But Cramer added: “If the war ends soon and we have a new Fed chief, you’ll feel like a moron for staying away from Nvidia.”
Examining supply dynamics, the technology sector faces shortages in both compute power and memory resources, indicating that demand for Nvidia’s chips faces limitations primarily from pricing considerations rather than customer interest.
“Everything you use Nvidia for is considered mission critical,” Cramer said, brushing off concerns about energy costs at data centers. Nvidia’s facilities run mostly on domestic natural gas, which has “barely budged.”
Cramer highlighted that Gulf sovereign wealth funds have contributed capital for data center development. Some uncertainty exists around whether this financing stream might diminish. Following his attendance at Nvidia’s GTC conference last week, Cramer reported witnessing “incredibly strong” demand signals.
His bottom line: while exercising measured enthusiasm, he leans toward early entry over missing potential gains. “You’re ultimately being given a chance to buy a high quality stock at a lower price than you’d normally expect.”
Wells Fargo Projects Revenue Exceeding Nvidia’s Own Targets
In separate commentary Thursday, Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers proposed that Nvidia’s internal $1T data center revenue projection — spanning Blackwell and Rubin GPU products through 2027 — may prove conservative.
Rakers maintains an Overweight rating alongside a $265 price target for NVDA, projecting 15–20%+ potential above current consensus estimates for 2026–2027 data center revenue.
His analysis centers on infrastructure deployment trends: the five largest cloud providers anticipate installing approximately 22 gigawatts of AI infrastructure during 2026 and 25 gigawatts throughout 2027. These deployment volumes suggest substantially higher Nvidia revenue than existing Wall Street forecasts reflect.
“From this, we present a pluggable model implying ~$120B+ of NVDA data center revenue upside for 2026–2027 vs. consensus estimates,” Rakers wrote.
Breaking Down the $1T Revenue Pipeline
Within the disclosed $1T+ Blackwell and Rubin pipeline, Wells Fargo calculates that approximately $840B represents expected deliveries spanning 2026 through 2027. As of January 2026, around $150–$155B of this total had been recognized as revenue.
Rakers calculates Nvidia had installed approximately 9 gigawatts of Blackwell infrastructure by the conclusion of fiscal Q4 2026, with Blackwell GPUs representing roughly 65–70% of that capacity. This translates to approximately $25B in revenue per gigawatt deployed.
While Rakers has chosen to maintain current official estimates for now, he indicated potential revisions should deployment tracking continue exceeding projections.
