Key Takeaways
- The company transitioned from compounded semaglutide to branded GLP-1 medications in March 2026
- Bank of America reduced its price target to $21 from $23 while maintaining a Hold/Neutral stance
- Analysts project GLP-1 EBITDA contributions may decline 50% year-over-year in 2026
- Amazon Pharmacy launched Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 medication Foundayo, intensifying competition
- HIMS shares have declined approximately 39% year-to-date, hovering near $20
In March 2026, Hims & Hers executed a strategic shift, abandoning compounded semaglutide in favor of FDA-approved branded GLP-1 treatments. Company leadership described this transformation as positioning the business to become “the largest global consumer health platform for access to more affordable, approved medications.”
Hims & Hers Health, Inc., HIMS
This strategic realignment came after resolving a legal confrontation with Novo Nordisk. The settlement resulted in Hims & Hers committing to distribute Novo Nordisk’s approved GLP-1 products instead of lower-cost compounded alternatives.
Share performance has suffered significantly. HIMS has dropped approximately 39% throughout 2026, with shares trading near $20 as of Wednesday’s session.
Bank of America analyst Allen Lutz adjusted his price target on HIMS downward from $23 to $21 earlier this week. He maintained his Neutral stance on the shares, pointing to peer valuation compression and short-term profitability headwinds.
Lutz forecasted that 2026 EBITDA figures could land roughly 20% beneath current Street expectations. His analysis further suggested that GLP-1 segment contributions to EBITDA might shrink by up to 50% compared to the prior year.
Despite these reservations, Lutz indicated his team maintains a “slightly more optimistic” perspective regarding the company’s international expansion strategy. He highlighted that the $149-per-month branded GLP-1 offering could eventually deliver margins comparable to compounded products, contingent upon subscriber migration rates.
Subscriber Migration Drives Revenue Outlook
Bank of America projects Hims & Hers may successfully migrate 40% to 50% of current subscribers to branded offerings, while maintaining 5% to 10% on compounded products. This conversion scenario would yield approximately $60 million to $90 million in quarterly GLP-1 revenue.
International expansion remains a priority focus. Management targets growing this segment beyond $1 billion in revenue within three years, projecting a mid-teens organic compound annual growth rate. Bank of America’s due diligence on the Eucalyptus platform indicates approximately 90% of revenue will derive from branded GLP-1 distribution at roughly 40% gross margins.
Canaccord analyst Maria Ripps maintained a more bullish perspective. She upheld her Buy rating, contending that the Novo Nordisk collaboration represents a “long-term tailwind” for the company. Ripps argued that current valuations fail to properly reflect the company’s telehealth infrastructure, subscriber network, and diversifying treatment offerings.
Amazon Intensifies Competition With Lilly Partnership
Competitive dynamics shifted further on Thursday. Amazon Pharmacy revealed plans to distribute Eli Lilly’s recently approved oral GLP-1 medication, Foundayo, featuring same-day delivery capabilities. HIMS shares dipped 0.5% following the announcement. Novo Nordisk declined 1.5%.
Foundayo represents a once-daily oral therapy for adults managing obesity or weight-related health conditions. Pricing begins at $25 monthly for insured patients, while cash-paying customers face $149 monthly charges.
Amazon will provide same-day delivery across nearly 3,000 cities initially, with plans to extend coverage to 4,500 locations by year-end. The e-commerce giant noted it has distributed GLP-1 medications since 2021, with customers realizing over $200 million in savings through automatic coupon programs, where GLP-1 drugs constitute the largest savings category.
Wall Street consensus currently rates HIMS as a Moderate Buy, reflecting four Buy recommendations and 10 Hold ratings issued over the past three months. The average analyst price target of $26.36 suggests potential upside of approximately 36% from present trading levels.
