Key Points
- David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, projects oil prices may climb to $80–$100 per barrel over the coming three to six months
- A severe escalation in the Iranian conflict could drive oil prices to $170 per barrel, according to Solomon
- On Tuesday, Brent crude decreased 0.5% to $94.95 while WTI declined 1.8% to $88.04
- The Strait of Hormuz has remained predominantly blocked since hostilities commenced in late February
- Rerouted shipments through Saudi Arabia and UAE terminals have reached 6.5 million barrels daily, up from 5.0 million before the conflict
David Solomon, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, projected on Tuesday that crude oil prices may advance to a range of $80 to $100 per barrel over the next three to six months. Solomon delivered these remarks during an appearance at the Paley Center.
Solomon further cautioned that a significant intensification of hostilities with Iran could propel oil prices to $170 per barrel. While he assessed that U.S. recession risks remain modest at present, he characterized the current environment as “only one tweet away” from a major shift.
Oil prices retreated on Tuesday as traders assessed conflicting indicators surrounding diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. A temporary ceasefire arrangement is scheduled to lapse later this week, though authorities have not disclosed the precise expiration time.
Brent crude futures declined 0.5% to settle at $94.95 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.8% to close at $88.04 per barrel.
Crude had rallied strongly during the previous trading session following heightened weekend tensions. The United States confiscated an Iranian-flagged commercial vessel, prompting Tehran to issue retaliatory warnings.
Iran subsequently closed the Strait of Hormuz once again, reversing a Friday reopening. Tehran justified the closure by pointing to an active U.S. naval blockade affecting Iranian ports and coastal areas.
Diplomatic Negotiations Face Obstacles
President Trump stated Monday that the naval blockade would continue until both sides reach a comprehensive peace agreement. He indicated that fresh negotiations with Iran were anticipated this week, with an American delegation expected to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Iranian officials have publicly rejected additional negotiation rounds. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker and chief negotiator, declared that Tehran would refuse to negotiate “under the shadow of threats” emanating from Washington.
Multiple Iranian state media outlets reinforced this stance. Conversely, alternative reports suggested Iran had privately informed regional intermediaries of its intention to dispatch a delegation to Pakistan this week.
ANZ analysts wrote that “ongoing uncertainty continues to overshadow any peace agreement, as Iran remains reluctant to attend a second round of talks in Pakistan.”
Trump publicly announced the two-week ceasefire on April 7 at 6:32 p.m. ET.
Hormuz Passage Remains Disrupted
The Strait of Hormuz serves as a transit route for approximately one fifth of global oil supplies. The strategic waterway has been predominantly closed since military operations began in late February.
Although the initial price surge has moderated to some degree, crude remains substantially elevated compared to pre-conflict levels.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have redirected their export flows to bypass Hormuz. Both nations are utilizing the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea and the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman.
ANZ reported that combined throughput at these two facilities has increased to 6.5 million barrels daily, compared with 5.0 million barrels daily prior to the outbreak of hostilities.
The Iranian ceasefire deadline draws closer while a confirmed agreement remains elusive.
