Key Takeaways
- Citi issued a Sell rating on Gemini Space Station (GEMI), slashing the price target from $13 to $5.50
- Shares declined 5.1% in premarket hours to $6.75, bringing year-to-date losses to 28%
- Analysts forecast a $263 million adjusted EBITDA loss for 2025, with profitability delayed until 2029
- App downloads plummeted to 41,000 in February from over 100,000 monthly in the previous nine months
- The company executed workforce reductions of 25% and exited UK, European, and Australian markets
Gemini Space Station launched its public debut at $28 per share last September. Today, shares hover near $6.75. The descent continued Wednesday with a punishing analyst report.
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock, GEMI
Peter Christiansen, analyst at Citi, issued a Sell rating on GEMI, previously rated Neutral, while reducing his price target to $5.50 from $13. The assessment arrived Wednesday in a research note published ahead of Gemini’s fiscal-year earnings scheduled for Thursday’s post-market session.
Premarket trading saw shares fall 5.1%. Year-to-date performance shows a 28% decline.
The Winklevoss twins orchestrated Gemini’s public listing during a peak period for cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin traded near record highs when GEMI made its market debut. From October onward, Bitcoin retreated approximately 40% from those peaks, dragging trading volumes lower throughout the sector.
This market contraction directly impacts Gemini’s core business. Reduced trading activity translates to diminished revenue for a company already operating in the red.
Path to Profitability Extended to 2029
Citi’s previous forecast anticipated Gemini achieving positive EBITDA by 2028. The firm has now extended that timeline to 2029 as the earliest possible date.
Christiansen’s 2025 projection shows an adjusted EBITDA loss of $263 million. The figures reveal a company depleting cash reserves while attempting to develop its platform amid challenging market conditions.
“We have increasing concerns the company will be challenged to scale profitability within a reasonable time frame for equity investors,” Christiansen wrote.
The analyst pointed to stalled progress on the CLARITY Act, legislation that could establish clearer regulatory frameworks for crypto platforms, as ongoing debates continue to delay key provisions.
User Engagement Shows Declining Trend
Metrics tracking user activity paint a concerning picture. Monthly unique visitors accessing the Gemini application and website have declined steadily following the September IPO.
February app downloads registered only 41,000. This represents a sharp drop from the more than 100,000 monthly downloads recorded throughout each of the preceding nine months.
For platforms dependent on network effects, reversing this type of downward trajectory requires significant catalysts.
Gemini has implemented aggressive cost reduction measures. The company announced workforce reductions affecting approximately 25% of employees last month.
Additionally, Gemini declared plans to cease operations in the UK, Europe, and Australia. Key executive departures include the COO, CFO, and Chief Legal Officer.
“We find ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drives our cost structure up and slows us down,” the Winklevoss twins wrote in a blog post explaining the international exit.
While these reductions aim to extend operational runway, Citi remains skeptical about the adequacy of remaining resources.
Gemini’s complete fiscal-year results arrive Thursday after market close. The report will provide critical data for investors evaluating whether the company’s restructuring efforts are yielding meaningful progress.
