Key Highlights

  • Q4 revenue reached $57.67 million, surpassing the Street consensus of $52.36 million
  • Adjusted loss per share of $0.38 performed better than analyst projections of a $0.47 loss
  • Shares advanced 6.5% during extended trading hours to $24.44 following a 1% decline in the regular session
  • Management provided 2026 revenue guidance ranging from $420 million to $450 million, aligning with the $440 million analyst consensus
  • Analyst sentiment remains positive with 63% Buy ratings and a mean price target near $38, representing approximately 70% upside potential

Firefly Aerospace delivered fourth-quarter financial results on Thursday that exceeded revenue projections, propelling shares upward in extended trading hours while operating losses came in wider than anticipated.

The aerospace company generated Q4 revenue of $57.67 million, outpacing the analyst consensus estimate of $52.36 million. The adjusted loss per share registered at $0.38, performing better than the forecasted loss of $0.47.

On a GAAP basis, the company recorded an earnings loss of $0.26 per share for the quarter, alongside a total quarterly net loss of $41.06 million.


FLY Stock Card
Firefly Aerospace Inc., FLY

The quarterly operating loss reached approximately $86 million. Analyst projections had estimated an operating loss around $69 million, representing a bottom-line miss. However, market observers remain primarily focused on revenue growth during this phase of the company’s development.

FLY shares rose 6.5% in after-hours trading to $24.44, following a 1% decline in the regular session. The S&P 500 decreased 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4% during the same trading day.

Since its August initial public offering at $45 per share, the stock has declined approximately 50%.

Forward Revenue Guidance Signals Growth Trajectory

For the complete 2026 fiscal year, Firefly has established revenue guidance between $420 million and $450 million. The analyst consensus estimate stands at $440 million, representing substantial growth from approximately $160 million in 2025. This reflects an aggressive expansion path by any standard.

Analyst forecasts anticipate the company will report an operating loss around $180 million throughout 2026. Current projections suggest operating profitability won’t materialize until 2028, when revenue is expected to reach $1.3 billion.

Consensus earnings estimates had decreased approximately 9.7% during the three months leading up to this earnings release. No downward revisions occurred within the 30-day period immediately before the report.

Wall Street Maintains Positive Outlook

The analyst community continues to express confidence in the stock despite its post-IPO decline. Among analysts tracking FLY, 63% maintain a Buy or Strong Buy rating. This percentage exceeds the standard 55%–60% Buy-rating ratio observed across S&P 500 constituents.

Current coverage includes 5 Buy or Strong Buy ratings, 3 Hold ratings, and zero Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The aerospace and defense peer group also carries a consensus Buy rating.

The average price target among analysts hovers around $38, representing more than 70% upside from current trading levels. The median 12-month price target stands at $32, approximately 28% above the most recent closing price of $22.96.

Firefly’s Blue Ghost spacecraft successfully reached the lunar surface in March 2025, fulfilling its mission under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services program — an initiative where the agency contracts with private sector companies to transport cargo to and from the moon rather than developing proprietary vehicles.

That mission took place before the August IPO. Following the public listing, market focus has concentrated on operational execution and revenue acceleration.

The fourth-quarter revenue figure of $57.67 million represented a top-line beat, while the company’s 2026 guidance spanning $420 million to $450 million encompasses the prevailing Wall Street estimate of $440 million.