Key Highlights

  • Research from Mercado Bitcoin demonstrates Bitcoin delivers superior returns compared to gold and the S&P 500 during 60-day periods following significant global disruptions
  • Following Trump’s tariff declaration in 2025, Bitcoin gained 24% compared to gold’s 8% increase and the S&P 500’s 4% rise
  • Throughout the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, Bitcoin has advanced 2.2% while gold declined 11% and the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States attracted $1.32 billion during March as gold ETFs experienced $2.92 billion in withdrawals
  • Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts Bitcoin ETFs will surpass gold ETFs in total assets

Research conducted by Brazilian cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin reveals that Bitcoin consistently delivers superior performance relative to gold and the S&P 500 during two-month periods following significant global disruptions.

Rony Szuster, the research director at Mercado Bitcoin, spearheaded the investigation. His research team analyzed 60-day timeframes following major economic and geopolitical disturbances, examining events ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to escalating trade tariffs.

Following the April 2025 tariff announcement by the Trump administration, Bitcoin surged 24% throughout the subsequent 60-day period. Gold increased by 8% while the S&P 500 advanced only 4% during this same timeframe.

Comparable trends emerged during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Bitcoin rallied 21%, outpacing both gold and the S&P 500 by significant margins.

Szuster cautioned investors about drawing premature conclusions regarding Bitcoin’s crisis response. “It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” he stated.

He clarified that market participants typically liquidate positions rapidly during crises to secure liquidity, creating downward pressure even on traditionally defensive assets during initial phases.

Bitcoin Demonstrates Resilience Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions

This performance pattern continues to unfold during the present U.S.-Iran conflict. Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 2.2%, advancing from around $65,800 to $67,300.

Gold, conventionally regarded as a crisis refuge, has experienced an approximately 11% decline throughout this period. The S&P 500 has retreated 4.4%, marking its sharpest monthly decline since 2022.

Szuster highlighted that Bitcoin achieved the strongest returns among major assets throughout the previous decade, even accounting for its characteristic volatility.

Bitcoin ETFs Capturing Market Share From Gold Funds

ETF specialist James Seyffart indicated during an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds may ultimately eclipse gold ETFs in aggregate assets under management.

“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart explained. He enumerated Bitcoin’s functions as digital gold, a value preservation mechanism, a portfolio diversification tool, and an appreciation-oriented investment.

“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he emphasized.

Current capital flow statistics support this evolving market preference. Throughout March, gold ETFs domiciled in the United States recorded net withdrawals totaling $2.92 billion. During this identical period, US spot Bitcoin ETFs captured $1.32 billion in net subscriptions.

The premier US gold ETF witnessed a single-day outflow of $3 billion on March 4, representing the largest daily redemption in more than two years.

Both assets have experienced declines across the trailing 30-day period. Bitcoin has decreased approximately 8% while gold has fallen around 8.25%, indicating synchronized movement despite divergent ETF capital flows.

During December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper observed that gold and Bitcoin have historically alternated in their relative performance cycles.