Key Highlights

  • BTC experienced a near 3% weekly decline, retreating from $76,000 to approximately $70,000
  • Federal Reserve maintained current rates while projecting minimal easing through 2026
  • Citi revised its Bitcoin price projection downward from $143,000 to $112,000 due to regulatory delays
  • Strategy accumulated an additional 22,337 BTC, expanding total reserves to 761,068 BTC
  • Morgan Stanley submitted an updated S-1 filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF under the ticker MSBT

Bitcoin began the trading week with encouraging momentum, reaching $76,000 on Tuesday — marking its strongest performance since the beginning of February. The rally proved short-lived.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% during Wednesday’s policy meeting, marking the second consecutive session without adjustment. Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern that escalating tensions involving Iran could elevate inflationary pressures, reducing the likelihood of monetary easing in the near term. Updated Fed projections indicate a single rate reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, while PCE inflation expectations increased to 2.7%.

This conservative monetary approach created headwinds for risk-oriented assets. Bitcoin declined below $69,000 on Thursday before stabilizing around $70,843 by Friday — representing a weekly loss approaching 3%.

Monetary Policy Creates Headwinds

Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, observed that the Fed elevated both its inflation and growth forecasts. She characterized the press conference as heavily centered on inflation concerns, with a “rather hawkish” tone throughout.

Escalating oil prices, driven by Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, compounded market pressures. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, explained: “Rising energy costs, delayed easing expectations, and a firmer dollar are creating a more selective investment environment.”

The $70,000 threshold has emerged as a critical technical level. Analyst Iliya Kalchev of Nexo Dispatch suggested that maintaining this level “invites a stabilization trade,” while breaking below “reopens the path toward the next support cluster.”

Analyst Downgrades Target as Regulatory Progress Slows

Citi analyst Alex Saunders reduced his Bitcoin price projection to $112,000 from the previous $143,000 target. The revision stems from delays surrounding the Clarity Act — proposed crypto market structure legislation — which faces obstacles in Congress. Polymarket odds for passage this year have declined to 60%, compared to nearly 90% in February.

President Trump addressed the situation via Truth Social: “The U.S. needs to get market structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money.”

Despite the challenging week, Strategy’s Michael Saylor revealed on Monday that his company acquired an additional 22,337 BTC. The firm’s aggregate holdings have reached 761,068 BTC, purchased at an average cost basis of $75,696.

Source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced varied capital movements throughout the week. Monday and Tuesday recorded inflows of $201 million and $199 million respectively, while Wednesday and Thursday witnessed outflows totaling $163 million and $90 million.

A technical analysis shared by crypto account CryptoBullet identified a rising wedge formation on BTC charts, suggesting potential downside toward the $50,000 range if the pattern confirms with a breakdown.

Morgan Stanley submitted a second amended S-1 registration with the SEC for a spot Bitcoin ETF, planned for listing on NYSE Arca under ticker MSBT. Approval would establish it as the first spot BTC ETF launched directly by a major US banking institution.