Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin experienced an 8.5% decline when hostilities between the U.S. and Iran commenced, then recovered approximately 11% from that bottom.
  • Rising price floors have emerged after each conflict escalation, with buyers entering at progressively higher levels.
  • BTC has delivered stronger returns than gold and the S&P 500 during the two-week conflict period.
  • Whale wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have resumed accumulation near $71,000, now possessing 68.17% of circulating supply.
  • Analysis of on-chain metrics indicates minimal selling pressure between current levels and approximately $82,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $71,500.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Hostilities between the U.S. and Iran erupted on Saturday, Feb. 28. Bitcoin stood as the sole major market available for trading that day. The digital asset plunged 8.5% to $64,000, marking its deepest drawdown.

Fast forward two weeks, and market conditions tell a different story.

Bitcoin has rallied approximately 11% from that trough. The leading cryptocurrency now hovers around $71,500. During this identical timeframe, gold has experienced significant volatility, the S&P 500 has posted negative returns, and Asian stock markets endured their most severe weekly decline since 2020. Only crude oil — surging more than 40% — and the U.S. dollar have delivered superior performance compared to Bitcoin. Both assets benefit directly from wartime conditions.

(CoinDesk)

Progressive Support Levels Emerge Following Each Decline

Each major development in the conflict since Feb. 28 has prompted Bitcoin selloffs. However, demand has consistently materialized at elevated price points.

Following Iran’s counter-strike missile launches on March 2, the price found support at $66,000. A week of continuous hostilities by March 7 established a floor at $68,000. Tanker attacks on March 12 saw BTC maintain $69,400. The Kharg Island strike on March 14 produced a low of $70,596.

This pattern reveals ascending support of approximately $1,000–$2,000 following each escalation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has encountered resistance on four separate occasions near the $73,000–$74,000 zone. This upper boundary has remained intact. Market participants await resolution — either Bitcoin surges past $74,000, or a significant escalation finally overwhelms demand.

Earlier in the year, a massive liquidation cascade eliminated $2.5 billion in leveraged positions during a single weekend, pushing Bitcoin down to $77,000. That shakeout appears to have purged excessive leverage from the system, creating a more stable market structure capable of weathering continuous conflict-related news without similar disruption.

Whale Wallets Increase Holdings as On-Chain Metrics Target $82K

Information from crypto analytics provider Santiment reveals that substantial Bitcoin wallets — addresses containing between 10 and 10,000 BTC — have resumed accumulation activity near $71,000.

Source: Santiment

These addresses now hold 68.17% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, increasing from 68.07% one week prior. Santiment characterized this development as a “positive reversal.” The analytics firm continues monitoring for potential retail capitulation, which has historically indicated market bottoms.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 16 on Sunday — deep within “Extreme Fear” territory.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their initial five-consecutive-day inflow period of 2026 this week, attracting roughly $767 million.

On-chain analyst Ali Martinez, referencing the UTXO Realized Price Distribution metric, observed that Bitcoin currently encounters minimal resistance between present levels and approximately $82,045. The $74,000 rejection area, according to his analysis, shows limited investor cost-basis concentration, implying this barrier may prove weaker than surface-level price action suggests.

The next significant support zone beneath current valuations exists around $66,898.

Bitcoin has gained 7.55% over the previous 30 days. BTC is currently trading at $71,500.